05 Aug - 
UFC on ESPN 40 predictions: Santos or Hill? And who will be next 'TUF' winners?

Santos
vs.
Hill
Luque
vs.
Neal
Pauga
vs.
Usman
Miller
vs.
Walker
Sakai
vs.
Spivac
Cachoeira
vs.
Lipski
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
127-74
hill2022
Hill
(77%)
luque2022
Luque
(86%)
pauga2022
Pauga
(56%)
walker2022
Walker
(57%)
spivac2022
Spivac
(78%)
lipski2022
Lipski
(73%)
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
136-70
trophy copy 2018 Champion
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
pauga2022
Pauga
miller2022
Miller
spivac2022
Spivac
cachoeira2022
Cachoeira
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohn
132-74
trophy copy 2014 Champion
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
pauga2022
Pauga
miller2022
Miller
spivac2022
Spivac
lipski2022
Lipski
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
132-74
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
usman2022
Usman
walker2022
Walker
spivac2022
Spivac
lipski2022
Lipski
Matthew Wells
@MrMWells
128-78
hill2022
Hill
neal2022
Neal
usman2022
Usman
miller2022
Miller
spivac2022
Spivac
lipski2022
Lipski
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
127-79
hill2022
Hill
neal2022
Neal
pauga2022
Pauga
walker2022
Walker
sakai2022
Sakai
lipski2022
Lipski
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
126-80
santos2022
Santos
luque2022
Luque
usman2022
Usman
miller2022
Miller
spivac2022
Spivac
lipski2022
Lipski
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
125-81
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
pauga2022
Pauga
walker2022
Walker
spivac2022
Spivac
lipski2022
Lipski
Nolan King
@mma_kings
123-83
santos2022
Santos
luque2022
Luque
pauga2022
Pauga
miller2022
Miller
sakai2022
Sakai
lipski2022
Lipski
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
121-85
trophy copy 2017 Champion
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
pauga2022
Pauga
walker2022
Walker
spivac2022
Spivac
cachoeira2022
Cachoeira
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
114-92
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
usman2022
Usman
walker2022
Walker
sakai2022
Sakai
cachoeira2022
Cachoeira
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
101-105
hill2022
Hill
luque2022
Luque
pauga2022
Pauga
walker2022
Walker
sakai2022
Sakai
lipski2022
Lipski

The UFC is back in its Las Vegas home base this week with a key light heavyweight bout, plus a pair of finals for Season 30 of “The Ultimate Fighter.”

UFC on ESPN 40 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, former light heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos (22-10 MMA, 14-9 UFC) takes on Jamahal Hill (10-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC). Hill is a big -340 favorite at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Santos is +250. Our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers largely are taking Hill with a big 9-2 picks lead.

In the co-feature, Vicente Luque (21-8-1 MMA, 14-4 UFC) takes on Geoff Neal (14-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) at welterweight. Luque is a 2-1 favorite at the betting window and like Hill has a 9-2 lead from our pickers.

In the heavyweight final of Season 30 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Zac Pauga (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) meets Mohammed Usman (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC), the brother of UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. Pauga is the biggest favorite on the main card at -290, but he has just a 7-4 lead in the picks.

In the “TUF 30” women’s flyweight final, it’s a close fight at the sportsbook between Juliana Miller (2-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) and Brogan Walker (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Miller is a slight favorite at -125, but Walker has a 6-5 picks edge.

Augusto Sakai (15-4-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC) takes on -280 favorite Serghei Spivac (14-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) at heavyweight. But despite the big odds in Spivac’s favor, he has just a 7-4 picks lead.

And to open the main card, Priscila Cachoeira (11-4 MMA, 3-4 UFC) meets Ariane Lipski (14-7 MMA, 3-4 UFC) in a women’s flyweight bout. Lipski nearly is a 2-1 favorite and has an 8-3 lead from our staff members.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Hill (77 percent), Luque (86 percent), Pauga (56 percent), Walker (57 percent), Spivac (78 percent) and Lipski (73 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 40.